
Arizona at Philadelphia (11:35 AM)
Philadelphia (-215) has a clear edge with a Bet Rating of 0.96 and a high win rate of .658, supported by a positive run margin of +1.5. Their starting pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.79, which further strengthens their position. The fair line for Philadelphia is 109, although the value percentage is negative at -57%. Arizona, despite having a slightly lower Bet Rating of 1.05 and a negative win rate of .494, features a starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, with a higher ERA of 5.36. Given Philadelphia’s strong overall metrics, superior ERA, and favorable home-field advantage, they present a compelling option.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Philadelphia (-215) on the money line.
San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 PM)
St. Louis (-121) enters this game with a marginally better win rate of .507 and a run margin of -0.4. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray’s ERA is an impressive 2.95, indicating strong pitching performance. San Francisco (+106), on the other hand, has a slightly lower win rate of .468 and a run margin of -0.4. Logan Webb’s ERA is also commendable at 2.99, but the team’s overall metrics are less favorable. Despite playing away, the overall advantage leans slightly towards St. Louis due to their win rate and starting pitcher’s performance.
SUGGESTED WAGER: St. Louis (-121) on the money line.
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (7:00 PM)
The Chicago Cubs (-112) and NY Mets (-104) are evenly matched with almost identical win rates (.481 for the Cubs and .480 for the Mets). The Cubs have a slight edge in Bet Rating at 1.06 compared to the Mets’ 1.04. The starting pitchers show a bit of disparity: Javier Assad for the Cubs has a stellar ERA of 2.75, while Luis Severino for the Mets has an ERA of 3.84. Given the Cubs’ slight edge in pitching and playing at home, they might have a minor advantage.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass, as the game is too close to call.
Washington at Colorado (3:10 PM)
Washington (-125) has a near .500 win rate (.487) and a run margin of -0.1. Their starting pitcher, Jake Irvin, has a solid ERA of 3.24. However, Colorado (+115) struggles with a win rate of .351 and a significant negative run margin of -1.6. Kyle Freeland’s ERA of 13.22 is a major liability. Despite being the away team, Washington’s overall better performance metrics and Irvin’s reliable ERA make them a favorable pick.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Washington (-125) on the money line.
Milwaukee at San Diego (4:10 PM)
Milwaukee (+120) has a superior win rate of .571 and a positive run margin of +0.8. Their starting pitcher, Tyson Myers, has an ERA of 3.33. San Diego (-134), with a win rate of .506 and a run margin of +0.2, has starting pitcher Mike King with an ERA of 3.31. Both teams have comparable Bet Ratings and fair lines, but Milwaukee’s higher win rate and Myers’ performance give them a slight edge.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Milwaukee (+120) on the money line.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:40 PM)
Detroit (-178) has a higher win rate of .461 compared to the White Sox’s .269. The run margin also favors Detroit at -0.2. Starting pitcher Reese Olson has an ERA of 3.39, while Jesse Cannon for the White Sox has an ERA of 3.68. Despite Detroit’s better overall metrics, the high odds make this game less attractive for betting.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to high odds on Detroit.
Toronto at Cleveland (1:40 PM)
Cleveland (-112) boasts a win rate of .649 and a run margin of +1.4. Triston McKenzie’s ERA is 4.48. Toronto (-102), with a win rate of .461 and a run margin of -0.6, has Yusei Kikuchi pitching with an ERA of 3.65. Cleveland’s superior win rate and positive run margin make them the preferred choice.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Cleveland (-112) on the money line.
Baltimore at Houston (2:10 PM)
Houston (-125) has a win rate of .481 and a run margin of +0.2. Framber Valdez’s ERA is 4.50. Baltimore (+108), with a win rate of .645 and a run margin of +1.6, has a starting pitcher, Albert Suarez, with an ERA of 2.35. Baltimore’s superior win rate and better pitching stats make them a compelling choice despite being the away team.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Baltimore (+108) on the money line.
Kansas City at Texas (2:35 PM)
Kansas City (+135) has a win rate of .538 and a run margin of +0.6. Alec Marsh’s ERA is 4.37. Texas (-146), with a win rate of .474 and a run margin of -0.1, has Max Scherzer, whose ERA is not listed. Despite Texas being the home team, Kansas City’s better metrics and Marsh’s decent ERA give them an edge.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Kansas City (+135) on the money line.
Minnesota at Oakland (4:07 PM)
Minnesota (-177) has a win rate of .545 and a run margin of +0.3. Pablo Lopez’s ERA is high at 5.63. Oakland (+150), with a win rate of .367 and a run margin of -1.2, has Hunter Harris with a stellar ERA of 1.66. Despite Minnesota’s higher win rate, Harris’s superior ERA makes Oakland an interesting pick.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to high odds and mixed metrics.
Atlanta at NY Yankees (1:35 PM)
The NY Yankees (-105) have a high win rate of .658 and a run margin of +1.4. Nestor Cortes has an ERA of 3.36. Atlanta (-105), with a win rate of .568 and a run margin of +0.6, has Max Fried pitching with an ERA of 3.11. The metrics are closely matched, making this game difficult to call.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to closely matched metrics.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (1:40 PM)
Pittsburgh (-160) has a win rate of .487 and a run margin of -0.4. Paul Skenes’s ERA is an impressive 2.29. Tampa Bay (+145), with a win rate of .481 and a run margin of -0.8, has Aaron Civale with an ERA of 5.42. Despite being the away team, Pittsburgh’s better pitching gives them an edge.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Pittsburgh (-160) on the money line.
Boston at Cincinnati (1:40 PM)
Cincinnati (-160) has a win rate of .474 and a run margin of +0.2. Nick Lodolo’s ERA is 2.76. Boston (+140), with a win rate of .532 and a run margin of +0.6, has Zach Kelly with a yet-to-be-determined ERA. Boston’s better overall metrics and higher win rate make them a favorable pick.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Boston (+140) on the money line.
Seattle at Miami (1:40 PM)
Seattle (-170) has a win rate of .570 and a run margin of +0.2. Bryce Miller’s ERA is 3.46. Miami (+146), with a win rate of .342 and a run margin of -1.6, has a starting pitcher whose ERA is not listed. Seattle’s superior overall metrics and better pitching performance make them the preferred choice.
SUGGESTED WAGER: Seattle (-170) on the money line.





