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My 2024 Kentucky Derby Guide Is Now Available

Posted on by DDS
Derek Simon's 2024 Kentucky Derby Guide

I believe this year’s Kentucky Derby guide is the best I’ve ever produced. In these pages, you’ll find:

THE FINAL FURLONG – I expound on the Final Fractions Theory, conceived by Colonel Edward R. Bradley and popularized by Jennie Rees. Using more scientific, dynamic values for lengths, I find out who the fastest finishers among the Derby entrants are.

Discover which horses are 0-for-43 based on the final fraction of their last race since 1992 and which have produced a positive ROI.

UNDERSTANDING QUIRIN SPEED POINTS – Find out how a horse’s running style (measured by Quirin speed points) affects its chances in the Kentucky Derby.

I give you the IVs and ROIs for each of the nine Quirin speed point totals.

TURN-ONS AND TURNOFFS – What does it mean when a horse gains or loses position on the turn for home in its final prep? 

Find out which horses return a profit and which horses practically never win America’s greatest horse race.

I LIKE BIG WINS, AND I CANNOT LIE – I examine how impactful a previous “big win” is in the Kentucky Derby.

I identify the contender with a profile that has produced a 5.88 impact value (IV) in the Run for the Roses.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY? – Does a horse’s birthday matter on the first Saturday in May?

Find out which foaling months produce an inordinate number of Derby winners and which don’t.

UNDERSTANDING SPEED FIGURE CYCLES – An in-depth discussion of Brisnet speed figures and what they mean.

Discover the speed rating pattern that has produced zero Kentucky Derby winners (from 38 starters) since 1992 and the pattern that has produced a 43.5 percent ROI.

KNOW YOUR S.H.I.T. – The top four Simon Historical Investment Technique selections have produced 21 of the last 31 Kentucky Derby winners. A $100 bet on each pick would have returned a profit of $16,990.

This year, the top contender earned 130 points. Since 1992, horses with 130 points or more have worn the roses seven times in 43 attempts, producing a 233.3 percent ROI (the highest rating ever was Big Brown with 225 points).

AI ANALYSIS OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY – I use artificial intelligence to select the top five Kentucky Derby contenders.

The results may surprise you!

THE CONTENDERS: A CLOSER LOOK – A horse-by-horse look at the Kentucky Derby field.

I analyze every potential Kentucky Derby entrant.

PACE PROFILE REPORT – Each Kentucky Derby Guide contains my Pace Profile Report, which includes par speed figures and my speed rations for every (potential) Derby contender.

In the past 31 years, six horses (of 49) won the Kentucky Derby after recording an LSR of -5 or greater and an ESR of less than 0 in their final prep, producing profits to win and place. What single Derby entrant qualifies this year?

Click HERE to order.

Please include a valid EMAIL ADDRESS and allow UP TO 12 HOURS for delivery. Write me at SimonSaysRacing@yahoo.com with any questions or concerns.

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NBA AI Betting Analysis

Posted on by DDS

Saturday, March 23, 2024

Updated Record: 22-8 (updated 3/24/24).


This is still a work in progress, but here is the AI analysis of my pro basketball Database Betting Report:

Brooklyn at New York

Team Stats

Brooklyn: Offense 111.4 PF, Defense 114.0 PA, -2.6 Margin.
New York: Offense 111.9 PF, Defense 108.0 PA, +3.9 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Brooklyn: 1.34
New York: 1.43

  • The Knicks show a strong trend towards the UNDER, particularly in scenarios like playing on 1 day’s rest (Under is 21-6) and as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 (Under is 8-1).
  • The Nets have seen the OVER hit in 4 of their last 5 when playing on 1 day’s rest.

Betting Summary: The Knicks have a better offensive and defensive balance, as reflected in their positive point differential and higher bet rating. Considering the Knicks’ defensive capability and the Nets’ offensive performance, the UNDER might be attractive, given the Knicks’ tendency to engage in lower-scoring games. The spread is a tighter call, but with New York’s solid performance and the slight edge in bet ratings, leaning towards the Knicks to cover seems reasonable, albeit with caution due to their ATS records.

Sacramento at Orlando

Team Stats

Sacramento: Offense 117.9 PF, Defense 116.5 PA, +1.4 Margin.
Orlando: Offense 110.9 PF, Defense 108.8 PA, +2.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Sacramento: 1.50
Orlando: 1.17.

  • Orlando demonstrates a strong UNDER trend in several contexts, notably when their opponent allows 100+ points in their previous game (Under is 10-2).
  • Sacramento shows a mixed trend, with a slight lean towards the UNDER recently.

Betting Summary: Orlando’s stronger defensive stats and positive margin, combined with a respectable bet rating, suggest they’re positioned well to cover against Sacramento. The total points present a potential for the UNDER, aligning with both teams’ recent trends towards lower-scoring games, despite Sacramento’s high-scoring offense.

Charlotte at Atlanta

Team Stats

Charlotte: Offense 106.6 PF, Defense 116.7 PA, -10.1 Margin.
Atlanta: Offense 119.0 PF, Defense 121.2 PA, -2.2 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Charlotte: 1.23
Atlanta: 1.98

  • Atlanta shows a tendency towards the UNDER in their recent games, especially as a favorite.
  • Charlotte has strong UNDER trends, especially when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Betting Summary: Atlanta’s high-scoring games and negative point differential contrast sharply with Charlotte’s struggles. The bet rating favors Atlanta, indicating a stronger performance potential. The game could go OVER, considering Atlanta’s offensive output and defensive weaknesses. Atlanta might cover the spread, given the bet rating and Charlotte’s challenges, but their own defensive issues make this a cautious recommendation.

Toronto at Washington

Team Stats

Toronto: Offense 113.2 PF, Defense 118.1 PA, -4.9 Margin.
Washington: Offense 113.8 PF, Defense 123.9 PA, -10.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Toronto: 1.34
Washington: 0.89

  • Washington’s OVER trend in various scenarios, including as a home favorite, contrasts with their overall season trend towards the UNDER.
  • Toronto’s recent games have seen a significant UNDER trend, particularly when playing on no rest.

Betting Summary: Toronto’s slightly better defensive record and margin, combined with a higher bet rating, point towards a potential for them to cover against the struggling Wizards. Given both teams’ defensive issues, leaning towards the OVER could be considered, despite the trends.

Phoenix at San Antonio

Team Stats

Phoenix: Offense 117.1 PF, Defense 114.4 PA, +2.7 Margin.
San Antonio: Offense 112.1 PF, Defense 119.4 PA, -7.3 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Phoenix: 1.83
San Antonio: 0.94

  • San Antonio’s UNDER trend in home games is notable, especially against teams allowing 100+ points.
  • Phoenix shows a strong UNDER trend in recent games, indicating a defensive emphasis.

Betting Summary: Phoenix’s superior offense and positive margin, along with a stronger bet rating, suggest they are well-placed to cover the spread against San Antonio. The total points lean towards the OVER, given Phoenix’s high-scoring games and San Antonio’s defensive struggles.

Boston at Chicago

Team Stats

Boston: Offense 121.1 PF, Defense 109.4 PA, +11.7 Margin.
Chicago: Offense 112.1 PF, Defense 113.7 PA, -1.6 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Boston: 1.64
Chicago: 1.39

  • Chicago has been hitting OVER frequently, notably in their last 5 overall games.
  • Boston, despite a generally defensive posture, has seen the OVER hit in recent matchups.

Betting Summary: Boston’s impressive offensive prowess and strong defensive record, alongside a superior point differential and bet rating, position them as favorites to cover against Chicago. The OVER is tempting, considering Boston’s high-scoring nature and their ability to push the pace, despite Chicago’s recent trend towards overs in their games.

Utah at Houston

Team Stats

Utah: Offense 116.8 PF, Defense 120.5 PA, -3.7 Margin.
Houston: Offense 113.8 PF, Defense 112.6 PA, +1.2 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Utah: 1.20
Houston: 1.24

  • Houston’s recent games leaning towards the OVER, combined with their offensive capabilities, align with Utah’s mixed trends but recent leans towards higher scoring games.
  • The defensive weaknesses of both teams further bolster the potential for an OVER outcome.

Betting Summary: With both teams showing a tendency towards high-scoring games but Houston having a slightly better defensive record, the game could lean towards the OVER. Houston’s slight edge in bet rating and a positive margin suggests they might cover the spread, especially with Utah’s defensive struggles.

Denver at Portland

Team Stats

Denver: Offense 114.7 PF, Defense 110.1 PA, +4.6 Margin.
Portland: Offense 107.8 PF, Defense 115.9 PA, -8.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Denver: 1.72
Portland: 1.09

  • Portland’s OVER trend in their last several games, especially following a straight-up loss, contrasts with Denver’s mixed trends.
  • Denver’s overall UNDER trend, particularly in road games, suggests a defensive focus.

Betting Summary: Denver’s solid offense and decent defensive stats, coupled with a positive point differential and higher bet rating, indicate they could cover the spread against Portland. Given Portland’s poor defensive record and Denver’s capability to score efficiently, the OVER could also be a viable option, aligning with the trends of both teams’ previous games.

RESULTS (updated 3/24/24): 6-2 ATS, 7-1 O/U, 13-3 TOTAL.

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Aqueduct AI Selections

Posted on by DDS

March 23, 2024

AQU 1
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. J D Factor (#1): With morning line odds of 9-5, this 3-year-old colt trained by Richard E. Dutrow is showing impressive speed figures, with both last PSF and overall speed ratings at 92. Despite an LSR of -11, the current form is moderate at 27.1%. The comments note the horse is 0-3 at today’s track and has recently undergone a jockey switch. This contender is listed at fair odds of 8-1.
  2. Foxhole (#7): Foxhole enters the race with 7-2 morning line odds and is another promising 2-year-old colt, this time from the barn of Todd A. Pletcher, who has a 22% win rate. The son of Constitution boasts great current form of 99.2%, although the speed ratings are slightly lower with an overall speed mark of 83. Carrying an additional pound of weight (+1), Foxhole’s last workout was decent, and his fair odds stand at 9-5, making this horse a very strong competitor.
  3. Glint (#4): This 2-year-old gelding is trained by Robert J. Ribaudo and comes in with 3-1 odds. With an LSR of -15 and current form at 41.0%, the horse shows potential but may need to improve to beat the top contenders. He has a last PSF and overall speed rating of 86. Glint has fair odds of 12-1.

AQU 2
6.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Clubhouse (#2): As a 4-year-old colt with 8-5 morning line odds, Clubhouse, trained by Gustavo Rodriguez, showcases the highest last PSF at 101 and overall speed of 96. The horse has a high current form of 97.6% and a moderately low LSR of -13. The comments section highlights that the horse is 0-4 at today’s distance and has a record of 2-10 at this track, but has had a good workout. Clubhouse is listed with fair odds of 5-2, reflecting solid chances.
  2. Debate (#1): A 5-year-old gelding with 7-2 morning line odds, Debate is conditioned by Linda Rice who holds an 18% win rate. He carries an extra two pounds (+2) but posts a 100% current form and has an overall speed rating of 93. Despite a -17 LSR, the horse’s perfect form is notable. With a recent claim and being 0-1 at today’s track, Debate is considered a serious contender at fair odds of 9-5.
  3. M B’s Munning (#4): The 3-year-old ridgling comes in with 2-1 morning line odds. Trained by Orlando Noda with an 11% win rate, he displays last PSF and overall speed ratings of 93 and 95, respectively, with an LSR of -16. His current form is at 43.1%, and his track record shows 2-6 at today’s distance and 2-9 at the track. M B’s Munning has fair odds of 8-1.

AQU 3
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. My Girl Jal (#4): With 8-1 morning line odds, this 3-year-old filly shows exceptional speed figures, with a last PSF of 98 and an overall speed of 86. Plus, she has a solid last-race LSR of -7, her current form stands at 100.0%, suggesting she’s in peak condition. Her record at today’s distance isn’t strong (0-4), but she has managed to win two of nine starts at today’s track, combined with a good workout, making her a compelling choice with fair odds of 5-2.
  2. Meraviglioso (#6): This 5-year-old mare is listed at 3-1 morning line odds. With both last PSF and overall speed at 94, despite carrying an additional four pounds today, she maintains a perfect current form of 100.0%. her track record shows she is 1-3 at today’s distance and 3-14 at the track. Meraviglioso is a solid contender, despite fair odds of 10-1.
  3. Shelly (#2): A 3-year-old filly with 8-1 odds, trained by Mark Hennig. Shelly carries an additional pound (+1) but boasts a last PSF and overall speed rating of 84 and a current form of 100.0%. The LSR of -9 is decent, and her record is favorable with 1-1 at today’s track. Shelly offers value at fair odds of 5-1.

AQU 4
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Goldini (#2): This 6-year-old gelding is one of the favorites with morning line odds of 7-2. Trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez, Goldini comes into the race with the highest last PSF of 100 and an overall speed rating of 98. A slight concern is the last LSR of -11, but with a strong current form of 95.8% and a good workout noted, Goldini appears well-positioned for success with fair odds listed at 7-2.
  2. Wild Banker (#3): Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, this 6-year-old gelding trained by Richard Metivier shows commendable speed and form figures, with a last PSF of 95 and an overall speed of 88. The last LSR is relatively low at -4, and the horse’s current form is impressive at 94.4%. The comments indicate good late energy and a recent claim, suggesting potential for improvement. Wild Banker is intriguingly priced at fair odds of 3-1.
  3. Pit Boss (#1A): Sharing entry with Blake B., Pit Boss, trained by John T. Jr. Toscano, comes in with morning line odds of 3-1. His last PSF of 94 and an overall speed of 96 are solid, and with a last LSR of -8 and a perfect current form of 100.0%, he seems ready to compete. Despite a challenging track record (4-27 at today’s distance and 2-15 at the track), his recent claim and fair odds of 5-1 make him a notable contender.

AQU 5
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. That’s Money (#4): With morning line odds of 5-2, this 2-year-old colt trained by Todd A. Pletcher, who has a 22% win rate, is a strong favorite. Boasting the highest last PSF and overall speed ratings (101), and a solid -5 last LSR, this colt looks like an overlay at his fair of 3-2 or greater.
  2. Saint Gaudens (#6): At 9-5 in the morning line, this 2-year-old colt trained by Chad C. Brown, who has a solid 21% win rate, is another top contender. With a last PSF of 96 and an overall speed of 89, he has a decent last LSR of -6. Like That’s Money, he also has a perfect current form of 100.0%. He’s had a big win at today’s distance (1-1) and his performance at the track is commendable (1-2). His fair odds are listed at 5-2, and a recent equipment change might suggest an added advantage.
  3. Liberty Central (#7): Listed with 4-1 morning line odds, this 3-year-old colt is trained by Patrick J. Quick with a 16% win rate. He has an impressive last PSF of 99 and an overall speed of 96, though his last LSR of -12 signals some recent challenges. His current form is moderate at 45.4%. With fair odds of 10-1, his performance at today’s track (1-6) and a recent medication change are concerns.

AQU 6
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Caldo Candy (#5): With the highest last PSF of 105 and the same in overall speed, this 3-year-old gelding is a front-runner and is the only horse in the field with a current form of 100.0%. With a good last LSR of -5, his strong form makes him the one to beat, and his morning line odds of 5-1 seem generous. Caldo Candy is 0-1 at today’s distance and 1-4 at today’s track. Given these factors, his fair odds are placed at 2-1, making him the value play.
  2. Dr. Kraft (#7): This 3-year-old colt trained by Chris Englehart, who has an 18% win rate, shows a last PSF of 95 and an overall speed of 96 with a moderate last LSR of -6. His current form is impressive at 97.6%, indicating he’s in peak condition. Dr. Kraft has not been successful at today’s distance (0-3) but is trying blinkers this time, which could improve his performance. With fair odds of 5-1, he is a strong contender.
  3. Prince of Truth (#2): With morning line odds of 6-1, this 3-year-old gelding has a solid last PSF of 86 and an overall speed of 85. His current form is at 61.8%, which is decent but not as strong as the top two contenders. He is 1-4 at today’s track, which shows some familiarity and success at the venue. Prince of Truth has fair odds of 9-2, positioning him as a potential challenger.

AQU 7
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Lady Mine (#5): With morning line odds of 3-1, this 4-year-old filly trained by Jeremiah C. Englehart, who has a high 27% win rate, shows exceptional form. She has a last PSF of 99, and an impressive overall speed rating (also 99), with a very good last LSR of -3. Noted for having good late energy and a recent medication change, she seems well-prepared for this race. Her fair odds are the shortest at 8-5, marking her as the favorite to win.
  2. Security Code (#1): This 3-year-old filly has morning line odds of 7-2 and is trained by Philip M. Serpe with an 11% win rate. She boasts a last PSF of 98, and an overall speed rating of 99, although she has a -13 last LSR. Carrying an extra four pounds might be a challenge, but her track record of 3-13 suggests experience at Aqueduct. She has fair odds of 7-2.
  3. Venti Valentine (#7): With 5-2 morning line odds, this 5-year-old mare trained by Jorge R. Abreu, who has a 14% win rate, is also among the top contenders. She has current form of 97.6%, a last PSF of 97, and an overall speed rating of 95. Despite a last LSR of -13, her form indicates readiness to compete at a high level. Her track experience is moderate with a 2-9 record. Venti Valentine’s fair odds are listed at 6-1.

AQU 8
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Silver Satin (#4): With morning line odds of 2-1, this 3-year-old gelding, trained by Jorge R. Abreu who has a 14% win rate, is the standout in terms of speed figures, boasting a last PSF and overall speed rating of 100. With a strong current form of 81.7% and a solid last LSR of -7, Silver Satin is a favorite at the fair odds of 7-5. The horse has raced once at this track without success, which could be a factor in today’s race.
  2. Schlomo (#6): Priced at 10-1 in the morning line, Schlomo is trained by William I. Mott with a win rate of 17%. As a first-time starter, Schlomo’s workout ratings are impressive, which suggests potential that is not reflected in the past performances. The fair odds of 9-1 indicate this horse could be an interesting bet, particularly for those looking for value.
  3. Last Drink (#9): Another compelling horse in the race, Last Drink, trained by Wesley A. Ward with a high win rate of 27%, has morning line odds of 8-1. With decent last PSF and overall speed rating of 88, Last Drink could be a dark horse in this competition. But the fair odds of 39-1 don’t entice.
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NCAAB AI ANALYSIS

Posted on by DDS

Yesterday’s Results: 9-8 ATS, 13-4 O/U (22-12, 64.7%).

Brown vs. Yale

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 12:00 PM
Spread: Yale -7.5
Over/Under: 135
Offensive Statistics: Brown scores 71.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 43.1%, while Yale scores 75.6 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.2%.
Defensive Statistics: Brown allows 72.2 points per game with opponents shooting 44.8%, while Yale allows 66.8 points per game with opponents shooting 41.5%.
Betting Odds: Brown has a bet rating of 1.12, and Yale has a bet rating of 1.45.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Brown enters the game with a 13-17 record, while Yale boasts a 21-9 record. Yale demonstrates superior offensive and defensive statistics compared to Brown, with a higher scoring average, shooting percentage, and lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may favor Yale in covering the spread due to their stronger overall performance. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Yale is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the over given Yale’s offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Yale to cover the spread, as they have shown stronger overall performance. The over may also be a favorable bet given Yale’s offensive prowess.

Duquesne vs. VCU (Virginia Commonwealth University)

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 1:00 PM
Spread: VCU -2
Over/Under: 127
Offensive Statistics: Duquesne scores 71.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 44.1%, while VCU scores 72.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 44.6%.
Defensive Statistics: Duquesne allows 66.5 points per game with opponents shooting 42.0%, while VCU allows 67.0 points per game with opponents shooting 40.9%.
Betting Odds: Duquesne has a bet rating of 1.60, and VCU has a bet rating of 1.29.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Duquesne holds a 23-11 record, while VCU stands at 22-12. Both teams have similar offensive statistics, but Duquesne has a slightly better defensive record compared to VCU, allowing fewer points per game and a lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may slightly favor Duquesne in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Duquesne has a chance to cover the spread, but the game could be close. The over/under may lean towards the under due to the defensive capabilities of both teams.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Duquesne to cover the spread, as they have a positive margin and a slightly better defensive record. The under may also be a favorable bet considering the defensive strengths of both teams.

Florida vs. Auburn

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 1:00 PM
Spread: Auburn -5.5
Over/Under: 155.5
Offensive Statistics: Florida scores 85.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.9%, while Auburn scores 83.2 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.4%.
Defensive Statistics: Florida allows 78.3 points per game with opponents shooting 43.4%, while Auburn allows 68.1 points per game with opponents shooting 38.5%.
Betting Odds: Florida has a bet rating of 1.73, and Auburn has a bet rating of 1.46.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: After a big come-from-behind victory yesterday, Florida enters the game with a 24-10 record, while Auburn boasts a 26-7 record. Florida demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage compared to Auburn. However, Auburn has a significantly better defensive record, allowing fewer points per game and a lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may favor Auburn in covering the spread due to their stronger defensive performance. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Auburn is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the under given Auburn’s defensive prowess.

Betting Suggestions: Considering Auburn’s defensive capabilities, the under may be a favorable bet.

Temple vs. UAB (University of Alabama at Birmingham)

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 3:15 PM
Spread: UAB -6.5
Over/Under: 138.5
Offensive Statistics: Temple scores 70.9 points per game with a shooting percentage of 39.5%, while UAB scores 77.6 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.0%.
Defensive Statistics: Temple allows 72.5 points per game with opponents shooting 43.7%, while UAB allows 75.4 points per game with opponents shooting 44.6%.
Betting Odds: Temple has a bet rating of 1.27, and UAB has a bet rating of 1.33.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Temple holds a 16-19 record, while UAB stands at 22-11. UAB demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a higher shooting percentage compared to Temple. Additionally, UAB has a slightly better defensive record, allowing slightly fewer points per game and a similar opponent shooting percentage compared to Temple. Recent trends may slightly favor UAB in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, UAB is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the over given UAB’s offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on UAB to cover the spread, as they have superior offensive statistics and recent trends in their favor. The over may also be a favorable bet considering UAB’s offensive prowess.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 3:30 PM
Spread: Illinois -3
Over/Under: 149
Offensive Statistics: Wisconsin scores 74.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 46.3%, while Illinois scores 84.2 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.0%.
Defensive Statistics: Wisconsin allows 69.3 points per game with opponents shooting 45.6%, while Illinois allows 73.4 points per game with opponents shooting 43.1%.
Betting Odds: Wisconsin has a bet rating of 1.61, and Illinois has a bet rating of 1.50.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Wisconsin enters the game with a 22-12 record, while Illinois boasts a 25-8 record. Illinois demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage compared to Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin has a slightly better defensive record, allowing fewer points per game and a higher opponent shooting percentage compared to Illinois. Recent trends may slightly favor Wisconsin in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Wisconsin has a chance to cover the spread, but the game could be close. The over/under may lean towards the over given Illinois’ offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Wisconsin to cover the spread, as they have a positive margin and a slightly better defensive record. The over may also be a favorable bet considering Illinois’ offensive prowess.

Today’s Results (updated 3/17/24 at 6:59 PM ET): 2-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U, 6-3 total.

Posted in Uncategorized

NBA AI ANALYSIS

Posted on by DDS

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Houston Rockets

The Cleveland Cavaliers, with a season record of 42-24, face the Houston Rockets, who stand at 31-35. Cleveland is favored by 4 1/2 points with an Over/Under of 215. The Cavaliers have been performing solidly, with an offensive rating of 113.8 and a defensive rating of 109.4. They have a positive point differential of 4.4 and a Bet Rating of 1.50. Houston, on the other hand, has been struggling with a point differential of 0.6 and a Bet Rating of 1.26.

Cleveland’s recent trends show a 30-35-1 ATS record and a 47.9% field goal percentage. Houston has a 30-36-0 ATS record and a 45.8% field goal percentage. Cleveland has the advantage statistically, both offensively and defensively.

Betting Summary: Considering Cleveland’s stronger statistical performance and being favored by 4 1/2 points, betting on the Cavaliers to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is close to the mark, so it might be safer to pass on this aspect of the bet.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

The struggling Charlotte Hornets (17-50) take on the Philadelphia 76ers (36-30), who are favored by 10 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 209. Philadelphia boasts a solid offensive rating of 115.2 and a Bet Rating of 1.41, while Charlotte struggles with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.21.

Charlotte has been struggling with a 27-38-2 ATS record, while Philadelphia holds a more respectable 34-31-1 ATS record. Philadelphia also has a higher field goal percentage and a stronger defensive game.

Betting Summary: Given Philadelphia’s strong performance and the significant point spread, betting on the 76ers to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively low, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Portland Trail Blazers (19-47) face the New Orleans Pelicans (40-26), with New Orleans being heavily favored by 13 points. The Over/Under is set at 214. New Orleans holds a strong offensive rating of 116.0 and a Bet Rating of 1.41, while Portland struggles defensively with a Bet Rating of 1.13.

Portland has been inconsistent with a 30-33-3 ATS record, while New Orleans holds a more favorable 28-37-1 ATS record. New Orleans also has a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given New Orleans’ dominance statistically and the hefty point spread, betting on the Pelicans to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is close to the mark, so it might be safer to pass on this aspect of the bet.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers

The Brooklyn Nets (26-40) face the Indiana Pacers (37-31), with the Pacers being favored by 8 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 228. Brooklyn has a Bet Rating of 1.34, while Indiana boasts a Bet Rating of 1.39.

Brooklyn has struggled defensively with a negative point differential, while Indiana has shown a more balanced performance. Indiana also holds a better ATS record at 37-31-0 compared to Brooklyn’s 30-34-2.

Betting Summary: Given Indiana’s stronger statistical performance and the point spread, betting on the Pacers to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-20) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (23-44), with Oklahoma City being favored by 10 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 218 1/2. Oklahoma City holds a strong offensive rating of 120.8 and a Bet Rating of 1.39, while Memphis struggles defensively with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.27.

Oklahoma City has a strong ATS record at 39-26-1, while Memphis has been less consistent at 31-36-0. Oklahoma City also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a better three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Oklahoma City’s dominance statistically and the significant point spread, betting on the Thunder to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls

The struggling Washington Wizards (11-55) take on the Chicago Bulls (32-35), with the Bulls being heavily favored by 10 points. The Over/Under is set at 225 1/2. Washington struggles both offensively and defensively, while Chicago holds a more balanced performance.

Washington has a dismal ATS record at 31-34-1, while Chicago has a slightly better record at 33-33-0. Chicago also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Chicago’s stronger statistical performance and the hefty point spread, betting on the Bulls to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Golden State Warriors (34-31) face the Los Angeles Lakers (37-31), with the Lakers being favored by 2 points. The Over/Under is set at 233 1/2. Both teams have shown balanced performances statistically, with the Lakers holding a slight advantage.

Golden State has a Bet Rating of 1.36, while the Lakers hold a higher Bet Rating of 1.59. The Lakers also have a slightly better ATS record at 37-30-1 compared to Golden State’s 32-33-0.

Betting Summary: Given the relatively close matchup and the slight point spread favoring the Lakers, betting on the Warriors to cover seems reasonable.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz

The Minnesota Timberwolves (45-21) take on the Utah Jazz (29-37), with Minnesota being favored by 8 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 223. Minnesota holds a strong offensive rating of 113.2 and a Bet Rating of 1.63, while Utah struggles defensively with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.20.

Minnesota has a strong ATS record at 32-31-3, while Utah has struggled at 36-29-1. Minnesota also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Minnesota’s dominance statistically and the significant point spread, betting on the Timberwolves to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings

The New York Knicks (39-27) face the Sacramento Kings (38-27), with the Kings being favored by 3 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 218. New York has shown a balanced performance statistically, with a Bet Rating of 1.45, while Sacramento holds a slightly higher Bet Rating of 1.46.

New York has a better ATS record at 24-40-2 compared to Sacramento’s 33-30-2. However, Sacramento boasts a higher field goal percentage and a better free-throw shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Sacramento’s slightly stronger statistical performance and the modest point spread, betting on the Kings to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively low, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

These betting summaries are based on the teams’ recent performance statistics, point differentials, ATS records, and other relevant factors outlined in the provided data. It’s essential to consider the trends and matchups before making any betting decisions.

RECORD: 9-5 (updated 3/17/24).

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AI Analysis: California Baptist (15-16) vs. Utah Valley (16-15)

Posted on by DDS

Wednesday, March 13 (9 p.m. ET) – In a highly anticipated matchup, California Baptist faces off against Utah Valley at the Orleans Arena. With both teams hovering around .500, this game carries significant implications for both teams’ postseason aspirations.

The Wolverines enter the contest as 5.5-point favorites, backed by their strong performance against the spread (ATS). They have covered the spread in 20 of their last 33 games, boasting a 22% return on investment (ROI). Additionally, Utah Valley has excelled defensively, particularly at home, where they have been under the total in 10 of their last 14 games.

On the offensive end, California Baptist relies heavily on Dominique Daniels Jr., who leads the team in scoring, averaging 19.2 points per game. However, the Lancers have struggled to find consistent scoring support, evident in their low offensive rankings across various categories.

Meanwhile, Utah Valley showcases a more balanced offensive attack, with multiple players contributing to scoring and playmaking. Led by Caleb Stone-Carrawell and Drake Allen, the Wolverines pose a formidable challenge to California Baptist’s defense.

On the betting front, the Lancers have struggled to cover the spread in recent games, with a 9-19 ATS ledger in their last 28 outings. Conversely, Utah Valley has been more reliable against the spread, making them a favorable pick for many bettors.

That said, teams with a bet rating of 2.00 or greater with a positive point margin have covered 53.6% of the time and offered a 2.31% ROI from 2007-2022. For this reason, California Baptist +4 looks like a slight value play tonight.

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AI Analysis of Races from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

Posted on by DDS
Horse racing

AQU Race 7
6 furlongs on dirt

Key Contenders:

KUPP (6-1): Trained by Wayne Potts, Kupp stands out as a top contender with favorable odds. This 4-year-old gelding boasts impressive late energy, evident from his high overall speed rating and consistent workouts. Despite a recent jockey switch, Kupp’s strong form at today’s distance and track positions him as a formidable threat for victory.

DAUFUSKIE ISLAND (6-1): Under the guidance of trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez, Daufuskie Island offers potential value with his commendable current form and solid overall speed rating. Despite past challenges at Aqueduct, this 4-year-old gelding’s recent good workout suggests readiness for a competitive performance.

WHAT’S UP BRO (9-5): Trained by Adam Rice, What’s Up Bro enters the race as the favorite, backed by remarkable attributes and a high win rate. A recent claim and jockey switch indicating confidence, this 3-year-old gelding demonstrates class and potential dominance. Strong form at today’s distance and track further solidifies his position as a leading contender.

Summary: Kupp, with a favorable morning line of 6-1, boasts strong overall speed and current form, making him a solid contender despite a recent jockey switch. Daufuskie Island also shows promise with good workouts and a respectable overall speed. What’s Up Bro, with the lowest morning line odds of 9-5, demonstrates consistent form and a high win rate. While the field offers some intriguing options, Kupp emerges as a standout pick given his combination of speed, form, and enticing odds.

GP Race 9
1 1/8 miles on all-weather

1 – PARAMOUNT PRINCE (8-5): Trained by Mark Casse, Paramount Prince takes a significant purse drop but presents mediocre speed ratings and limited current form. While he has one win at today’s distance, his recent performances on all-weather surfaces might not translate well here. Fair odds are 7-1.

2 – CYBER NINJA (10-1): Trained by William Mott, Cyber Ninja showcases solid speed ratings and a fair current form. With no prior success at today’s distance and track, Cyber Ninja might struggle in this field. Fair odds are 9-1.

3 – SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE (20-1): Offers modest speed ratings and a fair current form. Despite a recent claim and some success at today’s track, his overall record suggests he’s a longshot in this race. Fair odds are 31-1.

4 – SIGRUN FAST BOY (15-1): Presents solid speed ratings and a fair current form. With decent workouts and some success at today’s track, he could contend for a minor award. Fair odds are 34-1.

5 – AGED TRUTH (20-1): Trained by Caio Caramori, Aged Truth enters the race with impressive speed ratings and a stellar current form, coming off a big win. However, with limited race experience, how he’ll perform against tougher competition is uncertain. Fair odds are 22-1.

6 – SIR FOR SURE (5-1): Boasts impressive speed ratings and a strong current form, particularly showcasing excellent late energy. With success at today’s distance and track, Sir For Sure is a top contender. Fair odds are 4-1.

7 – ROTTERDAM (8-1): Trained by Ralph E. Nicks, Rotterdam has solid speed ratings and a fair current form, with success at today’s track. While he has shown improvement, he might need more to challenge for the win here. Fair odds are 11-1.

8 – JEOPARDY THEORY (9-2): Trained by Joseph Orseno, Jeopardy Theory offers decent speed ratings and a fair current form. Despite no prior success at today’s track, he could contend for a minor award based on recent performances. Fair odds are 16-1.

9 – PATOU ROAD (4-1): Trained by the great Chad Brown, Patou Road showcases impressive speed ratings and a strong current form. Despite limited success at today’s distance and track, his recent jockey switch and decent last workout suggest he could be a top contender. Fair odds are 2-1.

Summary: Sir For Sure and Patou Road emerge as the top contenders in this race, boasting impressive speed ratings and strong current forms. Aged Truth could be a wildcard with his recent big win, while Paramount Prince might struggle with a significant purse drop. Overall, Sir For Sure and Patou Road hold favoritism, with Aged Truth a potential upsetter if he handles the step up in class.

RESULTS
(Updated 3/11/24)

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Introducing AI-Generated Handicapping Analysis

Posted on by DDS

I’ve started using AI technology to analyze the betting reports I produce, marking a revolutionary approach to wagering on sports.

This AI-generated handicapping analysis provides users with unparalleled accuracy and depth, empowering them to confidently make informed betting decisions.  

One of the most notable features of this AI-generated handicapping analysis is its ability to adapt and evolve. As new data becomes available and the algorithm continues to learn and refine its predictions, users can expect increasingly accurate and nuanced insights into race and sports outcomes.  

Below are today’s top contenders from Aqueduct (data provided from my Race Regression Report):

AQUEDUCT
March 9, 2024

RACE 1: Roman Grace has been well-prepared for her debut. Looks First and Autumn Evening also present strong cases, especially considering their current form and trainer stats. While favorites like Catching Heat and I’m Thinking shouldn’t be dismissed, they look like underlays. Overall, a competitive race awaits, with potential for surprises and expected outcomes. 

RACE 2: Pit Boss emerges as a standout frontrunner; however, his 1-for-14 record at today’s record doesn’t inspire confidence. Swift Tap also presents a formidable challenge, wheeling back quickly for trainer Michelle Nevin. Longshots such as Mount Travers and Forever Wicked may surprise, especially considering their recent form and track history. Overall, a competitive field promises an exciting race with potential for surprises.

RACE 3: Friday I’m In Love seems to be the most likely winner, with outstanding performance metrics and exceptional current form. Waflr has a pace advantage. Charming Jim, Qorokwe, and Frankie R. shouldn’t be dismissed outright, though they face tougher challenges. 

RACE 4: Magic Express shines as a frontrunner shipping from Parx Racing. Midway Lights was a $450,000 purchase at auction for trainer Richard Dutrow. Majestic Michael also makes an intriguing case, while longshots like Party With Smarty and Cage Match shouldn’t be dismissed.

RACE 5: Mandatory appears to be a deserving favorite, boasting a superior last-race speed figure, although Blue Plate Special might offer the most value, with 2-1 fair odds.

RACE 6: Fortune’s Nephew looks like a strong favorite, boasting impressive performance metrics and recent form. Blinkers on and a recent good workout add to the positive outlook. Paschal Moon and Kentucky Joker present value with their exceptional current form and enticing odds. 

RACE 7: Expected Value and Mistical Curlin appear to be the ones to beat. Certified Loverboy and Shipsational have value at the right odds.

RACE 8: Hot Fudge stands out, boasting exceptional performance metrics and great current form. Quick Munny and Kant Hurry Love also look strong.

RACE 9: In this competitive race, contenders like Cuando and True Connection emerge as top contenders with solid performance metrics and promising current form, while longshots such as Glint and Mitole’s Diamond face steep odds due to their lack of experience and uncertain prospects. 

RESULTS
(Updated 3/11/24)

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The Surprising Truth About Age and Wisdom

Posted on by DDS
My wife, Liane, and I when we first began dating.

The past month or so has been tumultuous (to say the least). But as I reflect on everything that has happened, one sentiment reigns supreme — gratitude.

Navigating through the uncertainties of life is never an easy feat, but through all the ups and downs, I learned a valuable lesson: Life goes much better when you lead the dance rather than the other way around.

After being reprimanded at my last job for leaving at the end of my shift (my manager said I needed to stay until dismissed and that 14-hour days, on top of a two-hour commute, would be required the week before Christmas), a battle ensued in my head between the older, more responsible me and the younger, more defiant me. 

The younger me won. 

“That’s not going to work,” I said. Then, I packed up my things and left.

Of course, shortly afterward, I felt guilty. What was I thinking? We were moving at the end of December — we needed the money. Young me was too impetuous, too much of a gambler. I have a family to support, young me didn’t. 

I cursed young me all the way home, ashamed I didn’t just suck it up until I could find a better job. Isn’t age supposed to bring wisdom? 

In retrospect, I’m not too sure.

A little voice in my head (probably young me, he’s a loudmouth) kept telling me that staying in a bad situation is not really wisdom — it’s fear.

How many people remain in bad relationships because they don’t want to start over? Is that wisdom? 

I don’t think so.

Sometimes, we need to get out of toxic environments — immediately — and not worry about what the future holds. Because, in truth, we never know what the future holds.

In my case, my family and I wound up in the beach town of our dreams, and, thanks to my friends and former co-workers at Bang Energy, I now have three freelance writing jobs and just accepted a full-time position that pays me even more than my last job. Best of all, I’m happy; my family is happy.

Somewhere, young me is saying, “I told you so!”