Tag: Starting Pitcher

Posted in Sports Betting

AI MLB Selections for June 23, 2024

Posted on by DDS

Arizona at Philadelphia (11:35 AM)

Philadelphia (-215) has a clear edge with a Bet Rating of 0.96 and a high win rate of .658, supported by a positive run margin of +1.5. Their starting pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.79, which further strengthens their position. The fair line for Philadelphia is 109, although the value percentage is negative at -57%. Arizona, despite having a slightly lower Bet Rating of 1.05 and a negative win rate of .494, features a starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, with a higher ERA of 5.36. Given Philadelphia’s strong overall metrics, superior ERA, and favorable home-field advantage, they present a compelling option.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Philadelphia (-215) on the money line.

San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 PM)

St. Louis (-121) enters this game with a marginally better win rate of .507 and a run margin of -0.4. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray’s ERA is an impressive 2.95, indicating strong pitching performance. San Francisco (+106), on the other hand, has a slightly lower win rate of .468 and a run margin of -0.4. Logan Webb’s ERA is also commendable at 2.99, but the team’s overall metrics are less favorable. Despite playing away, the overall advantage leans slightly towards St. Louis due to their win rate and starting pitcher’s performance.

SUGGESTED WAGER: St. Louis (-121) on the money line.

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (7:00 PM)

The Chicago Cubs (-112) and NY Mets (-104) are evenly matched with almost identical win rates (.481 for the Cubs and .480 for the Mets). The Cubs have a slight edge in Bet Rating at 1.06 compared to the Mets’ 1.04. The starting pitchers show a bit of disparity: Javier Assad for the Cubs has a stellar ERA of 2.75, while Luis Severino for the Mets has an ERA of 3.84. Given the Cubs’ slight edge in pitching and playing at home, they might have a minor advantage.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass, as the game is too close to call.

Washington at Colorado (3:10 PM)

Washington (-125) has a near .500 win rate (.487) and a run margin of -0.1. Their starting pitcher, Jake Irvin, has a solid ERA of 3.24. However, Colorado (+115) struggles with a win rate of .351 and a significant negative run margin of -1.6. Kyle Freeland’s ERA of 13.22 is a major liability. Despite being the away team, Washington’s overall better performance metrics and Irvin’s reliable ERA make them a favorable pick.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Washington (-125) on the money line.

Milwaukee at San Diego (4:10 PM)

Milwaukee (+120) has a superior win rate of .571 and a positive run margin of +0.8. Their starting pitcher, Tyson Myers, has an ERA of 3.33. San Diego (-134), with a win rate of .506 and a run margin of +0.2, has starting pitcher Mike King with an ERA of 3.31. Both teams have comparable Bet Ratings and fair lines, but Milwaukee’s higher win rate and Myers’ performance give them a slight edge.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Milwaukee (+120) on the money line.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:40 PM)

Detroit (-178) has a higher win rate of .461 compared to the White Sox’s .269. The run margin also favors Detroit at -0.2. Starting pitcher Reese Olson has an ERA of 3.39, while Jesse Cannon for the White Sox has an ERA of 3.68. Despite Detroit’s better overall metrics, the high odds make this game less attractive for betting.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to high odds on Detroit.

Toronto at Cleveland (1:40 PM)

Cleveland (-112) boasts a win rate of .649 and a run margin of +1.4. Triston McKenzie’s ERA is 4.48. Toronto (-102), with a win rate of .461 and a run margin of -0.6, has Yusei Kikuchi pitching with an ERA of 3.65. Cleveland’s superior win rate and positive run margin make them the preferred choice.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Cleveland (-112) on the money line.

Baltimore at Houston (2:10 PM)

Houston (-125) has a win rate of .481 and a run margin of +0.2. Framber Valdez’s ERA is 4.50. Baltimore (+108), with a win rate of .645 and a run margin of +1.6, has a starting pitcher, Albert Suarez, with an ERA of 2.35. Baltimore’s superior win rate and better pitching stats make them a compelling choice despite being the away team.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Baltimore (+108) on the money line.

Kansas City at Texas (2:35 PM)

Kansas City (+135) has a win rate of .538 and a run margin of +0.6. Alec Marsh’s ERA is 4.37. Texas (-146), with a win rate of .474 and a run margin of -0.1, has Max Scherzer, whose ERA is not listed. Despite Texas being the home team, Kansas City’s better metrics and Marsh’s decent ERA give them an edge.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Kansas City (+135) on the money line.

Minnesota at Oakland (4:07 PM)

Minnesota (-177) has a win rate of .545 and a run margin of +0.3. Pablo Lopez’s ERA is high at 5.63. Oakland (+150), with a win rate of .367 and a run margin of -1.2, has Hunter Harris with a stellar ERA of 1.66. Despite Minnesota’s higher win rate, Harris’s superior ERA makes Oakland an interesting pick.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to high odds and mixed metrics.

Atlanta at NY Yankees (1:35 PM)

The NY Yankees (-105) have a high win rate of .658 and a run margin of +1.4. Nestor Cortes has an ERA of 3.36. Atlanta (-105), with a win rate of .568 and a run margin of +0.6, has Max Fried pitching with an ERA of 3.11. The metrics are closely matched, making this game difficult to call.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Pass due to closely matched metrics.

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (1:40 PM)

Pittsburgh (-160) has a win rate of .487 and a run margin of -0.4. Paul Skenes’s ERA is an impressive 2.29. Tampa Bay (+145), with a win rate of .481 and a run margin of -0.8, has Aaron Civale with an ERA of 5.42. Despite being the away team, Pittsburgh’s better pitching gives them an edge.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Pittsburgh (-160) on the money line.

Boston at Cincinnati (1:40 PM)

Cincinnati (-160) has a win rate of .474 and a run margin of +0.2. Nick Lodolo’s ERA is 2.76. Boston (+140), with a win rate of .532 and a run margin of +0.6, has Zach Kelly with a yet-to-be-determined ERA. Boston’s better overall metrics and higher win rate make them a favorable pick.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Boston (+140) on the money line.

Seattle at Miami (1:40 PM)

Seattle (-170) has a win rate of .570 and a run margin of +0.2. Bryce Miller’s ERA is 3.46. Miami (+146), with a win rate of .342 and a run margin of -1.6, has a starting pitcher whose ERA is not listed. Seattle’s superior overall metrics and better pitching performance make them the preferred choice.

SUGGESTED WAGER: Seattle (-170) on the money line.

Posted in Sports Betting

AI MLB Selections for June 22, 2024

Posted on by DDS

Featured Game:

The Baltimore Orioles take on the Houston Astros at 4:10 PM. Baltimore enters this game with a Bet Rating of 0.93, a robust win rate of .653, and a strong run margin of +1.6. Their ace, Corbin Burnes, who has an impressive ERA of 2.23, will start. The odds on the Orioles are set at -142, with a value percentage of -43%. On the other hand, Houston features a Bet Rating of 1.16, a win rate of .474, and a modest run margin of +0.1.

Baltimore at Houston (4:10 PM)

Though the Astros’ pitching options are thin, Ronel Blanco, their starter, boasts a solid ERA of 2.43. The line on Houston is +130, with a value edge of 62%. Despite being significant underdogs, the Astros are a 4-star play on the money line, indicating a high confidence in their potential to outperform expectations.

Key Statistics and Evaluation

Baltimore Orioles

Bet Rating: 0.93
Win Rate: .653
Run Margin: +1.6
Starting Pitcher (Corbin Burnes): ERA 2.23
Value: -43%

The Orioles have been on a hot streak, winning 10 of their last 14 games and showing exceptional performance on the road with a 12-4 record in their last 16 away games. Burnes, leading the American League in ERA, has consistently delivered strong performances, despite a previous rough outing against the Astros. Baltimore’s high win rate and positive run margin further reinforce the team’s strength.

Houston Astros

Bet Rating: 1.16
Win Rate: .474
Run Margin: +0.1
Starting Pitcher (Ronel Blanco): ERA 2.43
Value: 62%

The Astros have faced significant challenges with their pitching rotation due to injuries. Despite this, Blanco has emerged as a reliable starter, recently flirting with a no-hitter and maintaining an impressive ERA. His recent form has been stellar, with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts, positioning him as a critical factor in this game. The Astros’ recent home performance has been strong, and their betting value percentage suggests potential undervaluation by bookmakers.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Given Baltimore’s overall strength and Burnes’ consistent performance, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. A bet on Houston on the money line is advised for those seeking value and willing to take on some risk.

San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 PM)

In this matchup, San Francisco features a Bet Rating of 1.07 and a win rate of .474. They have a run margin of -0.4, and their starting pitcher, J. Hicks, boasts an ERA of 2.82. The fair line for San Francisco stands at -104 with a value of 2%. St. Louis, with a win rate of .500, has a Bet Rating of 1.02, a run margin of -0.5, and starting pitcher M. Mikolas has an ERA of 4.59. Their fair line is -110, with a negative value of -14%. Despite San Francisco’s superior pitching, the overall metrics slightly favor St. Louis. Given the lack of strong betting indicators, this game is a pass.

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM)

The NY Mets have a Bet Rating of 1.04 and a win rate of .486, coupled with a neutral run margin of 0.0. Their starting pitcher, T. Megill, has an ERA of 3.23. The fair line for the Mets is -106, with a value of -8%. The Chicago Cubs, with a win rate of .474, show a Bet Rating of 1.06, a run margin of -0.3, and J. Taillon as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.08. The Cubs’ fair line is -105, and their value is -3%. Both teams are fairly matched, but given the metrics and slight edge in pitching, a bet on the Mets is recommended.

Arizona at Philadelphia (4:05 PM)

Arizona presents a Bet Rating of 1.05, a win rate of .500, and a positive run margin of 0.1. Their starting pitcher, T. Henry, has an ERA of 5.40. Arizona’s fair line is 215, with a substantial value of 133%. Philadelphia, with a win rate of .653, has a Bet Rating of 0.96, a positive run margin of 1.3, and starting pitcher Z. Wheeler with an ERA of 2.84. Philadelphia’s fair line is -245 with a negative value of -62%. Despite Philadelphia’s stronger overall metrics, Arizona’s high-value percentage makes this an attractive bet on the run line.

Milwaukee at San Diego (7:15 PM)

Milwaukee comes into this game with a Bet Rating of 0.94 and a win rate of .579. They have a run margin of 0.8, and their starting pitcher, C. Rodriguez, holds an ERA of 6.47. The fair line for Milwaukee is -104, with a value of -13%. San Diego, with a win rate of .500, has a Bet Rating of 1.04, a run margin of 0.2, and R. Vasquez as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 5.69. San Diego’s fair line is -108, with a value of 2%. Given San Diego’s automatic selection and balanced metrics, a bet on the game money line for San Diego is advised.

Washington at Colorado (9:10 PM)

Washington displays a Bet Rating of 0.90, a win rate of .493, and a run margin of -0.1. Their starting pitcher, M. Parker, has an ERA of 3.06. The fair line for Washington is -115, with a negative value of -29%. Colorado, with a win rate of .342, shows a Bet Rating of 1.10, a run margin of -1.6, and C. Quantrill as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.43. Colorado’s fair line is 100, with a positive value of 23%. Despite Colorado’s poor win rate, their higher value and fair line make this game a pass due to insufficient strength in indicators.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:10 PM)

Chicago White Sox holds a Bet Rating of 1.62, a win rate of .260, and a negative run margin of -2.1. Their starting pitcher, D. Thorpe, has an ERA of 8.64. The fair line for the White Sox is 136, with a value of 102%. Detroit, with a win rate of .467, has a Bet Rating of 1.09, a run margin of -0.1, and K. Maeda as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 6.02. Detroit’s fair line is -159, with a negative value of -58%. Given the metrics and pitching struggles on both sides, passing on this game is recommended.

Kansas City at Texas (4:05 PM)

Kansas City features a Bet Rating of 0.95, a win rate of .545, and a run margin of 0.7. Their starting pitcher, M. Wacha, has an ERA of 4.24. The fair line for Kansas City is 125, with a value of 8%. Texas, with a win rate of .467, shows a Bet Rating of 1.10, a run margin of -0.2, and J. Gray as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.37. Texas’s fair line is -138, with a negative value of -16%. Despite Texas’s better pitching metrics, Kansas City’s overall balanced indicators make them a slight lean on the money line.

Minnesota at Oakland (4:07 PM)

Minnesota enters with a Bet Rating of 1.03, a win rate of .539, and a run margin of 0.2. Their starting pitcher, B. Ober, has an ERA of 4.81. The fair line for Minnesota is -158, with a value of -43%. Oakland, with a win rate of .372, has a Bet Rating of 1.14, a run margin of -1.1, and J. Sears is the starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.25. Oakland’s fair line is 145, with a value of 61%. Despite Oakland’s higher value percentage, Minnesota’s stronger win rate and balanced metrics make them the recommended pick on the money line.

Toronto at Cleveland (4:10 PM)

Toronto has a Bet Rating of 1.12, a win rate of .467, and a run margin of -0.6. Their starting pitcher, J. Berrios, has an ERA of 3.13. The fair line for Toronto is 125, with a value of 52%. Cleveland, with a win rate of .644, shows a Bet Rating of 0.92, a run margin of 1.4, and B. Lively as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.02. Cleveland’s fair line is -136, with a negative value of -40%. Given Cleveland’s stronger overall metrics and home-field advantage, a bet on Cleveland on the money line is advised.

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (4:10 PM)

Tampa Bay displays a Bet Rating of 1.07, a win rate of .487, and a run margin of -0.8. Their starting pitcher, Z. Eflin, has an ERA of 4.12. The fair line for Tampa Bay is -104, with a value of 1%. Pittsburgh, with a win rate of .480, shows a Bet Rating of 1.02, a run margin of -0.4, and J. Jones is the starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.76. Pittsburgh’s fair line is -105, with a negative value of -10%. Given the balanced metrics, a bet on Tampa Bay is slightly favored due to the slightly better value.

Seattle at Miami (4:10 PM)

Seattle enters with a Bet Rating of 0.97, a win rate of .564, and a run margin of 0.1. Their starting pitcher, L. Gilbert, has an ERA of 2.93. The fair line for Seattle is -170, with a negative value of -56%. Miami, with a win rate of .347, shows a Bet Rating of 1.29, a run margin of -1.5, and S. Anderson as the starting pitcher with an ERA of 31.50. Miami’s fair line is 150, with a value of 100%. Despite Miami’s higher value, Seattle’s stronger overall metrics make them the recommended pick on the money line.