Tag: Horseracing

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Aqueduct AI Selections

Posted on by DDS

March 23, 2024

AQU 1
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. J D Factor (#1): With morning line odds of 9-5, this 3-year-old colt trained by Richard E. Dutrow is showing impressive speed figures, with both last PSF and overall speed ratings at 92. Despite an LSR of -11, the current form is moderate at 27.1%. The comments note the horse is 0-3 at today’s track and has recently undergone a jockey switch. This contender is listed at fair odds of 8-1.
  2. Foxhole (#7): Foxhole enters the race with 7-2 morning line odds and is another promising 2-year-old colt, this time from the barn of Todd A. Pletcher, who has a 22% win rate. The son of Constitution boasts great current form of 99.2%, although the speed ratings are slightly lower with an overall speed mark of 83. Carrying an additional pound of weight (+1), Foxhole’s last workout was decent, and his fair odds stand at 9-5, making this horse a very strong competitor.
  3. Glint (#4): This 2-year-old gelding is trained by Robert J. Ribaudo and comes in with 3-1 odds. With an LSR of -15 and current form at 41.0%, the horse shows potential but may need to improve to beat the top contenders. He has a last PSF and overall speed rating of 86. Glint has fair odds of 12-1.

AQU 2
6.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Clubhouse (#2): As a 4-year-old colt with 8-5 morning line odds, Clubhouse, trained by Gustavo Rodriguez, showcases the highest last PSF at 101 and overall speed of 96. The horse has a high current form of 97.6% and a moderately low LSR of -13. The comments section highlights that the horse is 0-4 at today’s distance and has a record of 2-10 at this track, but has had a good workout. Clubhouse is listed with fair odds of 5-2, reflecting solid chances.
  2. Debate (#1): A 5-year-old gelding with 7-2 morning line odds, Debate is conditioned by Linda Rice who holds an 18% win rate. He carries an extra two pounds (+2) but posts a 100% current form and has an overall speed rating of 93. Despite a -17 LSR, the horse’s perfect form is notable. With a recent claim and being 0-1 at today’s track, Debate is considered a serious contender at fair odds of 9-5.
  3. M B’s Munning (#4): The 3-year-old ridgling comes in with 2-1 morning line odds. Trained by Orlando Noda with an 11% win rate, he displays last PSF and overall speed ratings of 93 and 95, respectively, with an LSR of -16. His current form is at 43.1%, and his track record shows 2-6 at today’s distance and 2-9 at the track. M B’s Munning has fair odds of 8-1.

AQU 3
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. My Girl Jal (#4): With 8-1 morning line odds, this 3-year-old filly shows exceptional speed figures, with a last PSF of 98 and an overall speed of 86. Plus, she has a solid last-race LSR of -7, her current form stands at 100.0%, suggesting she’s in peak condition. Her record at today’s distance isn’t strong (0-4), but she has managed to win two of nine starts at today’s track, combined with a good workout, making her a compelling choice with fair odds of 5-2.
  2. Meraviglioso (#6): This 5-year-old mare is listed at 3-1 morning line odds. With both last PSF and overall speed at 94, despite carrying an additional four pounds today, she maintains a perfect current form of 100.0%. her track record shows she is 1-3 at today’s distance and 3-14 at the track. Meraviglioso is a solid contender, despite fair odds of 10-1.
  3. Shelly (#2): A 3-year-old filly with 8-1 odds, trained by Mark Hennig. Shelly carries an additional pound (+1) but boasts a last PSF and overall speed rating of 84 and a current form of 100.0%. The LSR of -9 is decent, and her record is favorable with 1-1 at today’s track. Shelly offers value at fair odds of 5-1.

AQU 4
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Goldini (#2): This 6-year-old gelding is one of the favorites with morning line odds of 7-2. Trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez, Goldini comes into the race with the highest last PSF of 100 and an overall speed rating of 98. A slight concern is the last LSR of -11, but with a strong current form of 95.8% and a good workout noted, Goldini appears well-positioned for success with fair odds listed at 7-2.
  2. Wild Banker (#3): Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, this 6-year-old gelding trained by Richard Metivier shows commendable speed and form figures, with a last PSF of 95 and an overall speed of 88. The last LSR is relatively low at -4, and the horse’s current form is impressive at 94.4%. The comments indicate good late energy and a recent claim, suggesting potential for improvement. Wild Banker is intriguingly priced at fair odds of 3-1.
  3. Pit Boss (#1A): Sharing entry with Blake B., Pit Boss, trained by John T. Jr. Toscano, comes in with morning line odds of 3-1. His last PSF of 94 and an overall speed of 96 are solid, and with a last LSR of -8 and a perfect current form of 100.0%, he seems ready to compete. Despite a challenging track record (4-27 at today’s distance and 2-15 at the track), his recent claim and fair odds of 5-1 make him a notable contender.

AQU 5
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. That’s Money (#4): With morning line odds of 5-2, this 2-year-old colt trained by Todd A. Pletcher, who has a 22% win rate, is a strong favorite. Boasting the highest last PSF and overall speed ratings (101), and a solid -5 last LSR, this colt looks like an overlay at his fair of 3-2 or greater.
  2. Saint Gaudens (#6): At 9-5 in the morning line, this 2-year-old colt trained by Chad C. Brown, who has a solid 21% win rate, is another top contender. With a last PSF of 96 and an overall speed of 89, he has a decent last LSR of -6. Like That’s Money, he also has a perfect current form of 100.0%. He’s had a big win at today’s distance (1-1) and his performance at the track is commendable (1-2). His fair odds are listed at 5-2, and a recent equipment change might suggest an added advantage.
  3. Liberty Central (#7): Listed with 4-1 morning line odds, this 3-year-old colt is trained by Patrick J. Quick with a 16% win rate. He has an impressive last PSF of 99 and an overall speed of 96, though his last LSR of -12 signals some recent challenges. His current form is moderate at 45.4%. With fair odds of 10-1, his performance at today’s track (1-6) and a recent medication change are concerns.

AQU 6
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Caldo Candy (#5): With the highest last PSF of 105 and the same in overall speed, this 3-year-old gelding is a front-runner and is the only horse in the field with a current form of 100.0%. With a good last LSR of -5, his strong form makes him the one to beat, and his morning line odds of 5-1 seem generous. Caldo Candy is 0-1 at today’s distance and 1-4 at today’s track. Given these factors, his fair odds are placed at 2-1, making him the value play.
  2. Dr. Kraft (#7): This 3-year-old colt trained by Chris Englehart, who has an 18% win rate, shows a last PSF of 95 and an overall speed of 96 with a moderate last LSR of -6. His current form is impressive at 97.6%, indicating he’s in peak condition. Dr. Kraft has not been successful at today’s distance (0-3) but is trying blinkers this time, which could improve his performance. With fair odds of 5-1, he is a strong contender.
  3. Prince of Truth (#2): With morning line odds of 6-1, this 3-year-old gelding has a solid last PSF of 86 and an overall speed of 85. His current form is at 61.8%, which is decent but not as strong as the top two contenders. He is 1-4 at today’s track, which shows some familiarity and success at the venue. Prince of Truth has fair odds of 9-2, positioning him as a potential challenger.

AQU 7
8.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Lady Mine (#5): With morning line odds of 3-1, this 4-year-old filly trained by Jeremiah C. Englehart, who has a high 27% win rate, shows exceptional form. She has a last PSF of 99, and an impressive overall speed rating (also 99), with a very good last LSR of -3. Noted for having good late energy and a recent medication change, she seems well-prepared for this race. Her fair odds are the shortest at 8-5, marking her as the favorite to win.
  2. Security Code (#1): This 3-year-old filly has morning line odds of 7-2 and is trained by Philip M. Serpe with an 11% win rate. She boasts a last PSF of 98, and an overall speed rating of 99, although she has a -13 last LSR. Carrying an extra four pounds might be a challenge, but her track record of 3-13 suggests experience at Aqueduct. She has fair odds of 7-2.
  3. Venti Valentine (#7): With 5-2 morning line odds, this 5-year-old mare trained by Jorge R. Abreu, who has a 14% win rate, is also among the top contenders. She has current form of 97.6%, a last PSF of 97, and an overall speed rating of 95. Despite a last LSR of -13, her form indicates readiness to compete at a high level. Her track experience is moderate with a 2-9 record. Venti Valentine’s fair odds are listed at 6-1.

AQU 8
7.0 furlongs on dirt.

  1. Silver Satin (#4): With morning line odds of 2-1, this 3-year-old gelding, trained by Jorge R. Abreu who has a 14% win rate, is the standout in terms of speed figures, boasting a last PSF and overall speed rating of 100. With a strong current form of 81.7% and a solid last LSR of -7, Silver Satin is a favorite at the fair odds of 7-5. The horse has raced once at this track without success, which could be a factor in today’s race.
  2. Schlomo (#6): Priced at 10-1 in the morning line, Schlomo is trained by William I. Mott with a win rate of 17%. As a first-time starter, Schlomo’s workout ratings are impressive, which suggests potential that is not reflected in the past performances. The fair odds of 9-1 indicate this horse could be an interesting bet, particularly for those looking for value.
  3. Last Drink (#9): Another compelling horse in the race, Last Drink, trained by Wesley A. Ward with a high win rate of 27%, has morning line odds of 8-1. With decent last PSF and overall speed rating of 88, Last Drink could be a dark horse in this competition. But the fair odds of 39-1 don’t entice.
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AI Analysis of Races from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park

Posted on by DDS
Horse racing

AQU Race 7
6 furlongs on dirt

Key Contenders:

KUPP (6-1): Trained by Wayne Potts, Kupp stands out as a top contender with favorable odds. This 4-year-old gelding boasts impressive late energy, evident from his high overall speed rating and consistent workouts. Despite a recent jockey switch, Kupp’s strong form at today’s distance and track positions him as a formidable threat for victory.

DAUFUSKIE ISLAND (6-1): Under the guidance of trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez, Daufuskie Island offers potential value with his commendable current form and solid overall speed rating. Despite past challenges at Aqueduct, this 4-year-old gelding’s recent good workout suggests readiness for a competitive performance.

WHAT’S UP BRO (9-5): Trained by Adam Rice, What’s Up Bro enters the race as the favorite, backed by remarkable attributes and a high win rate. A recent claim and jockey switch indicating confidence, this 3-year-old gelding demonstrates class and potential dominance. Strong form at today’s distance and track further solidifies his position as a leading contender.

Summary: Kupp, with a favorable morning line of 6-1, boasts strong overall speed and current form, making him a solid contender despite a recent jockey switch. Daufuskie Island also shows promise with good workouts and a respectable overall speed. What’s Up Bro, with the lowest morning line odds of 9-5, demonstrates consistent form and a high win rate. While the field offers some intriguing options, Kupp emerges as a standout pick given his combination of speed, form, and enticing odds.

GP Race 9
1 1/8 miles on all-weather

1 – PARAMOUNT PRINCE (8-5): Trained by Mark Casse, Paramount Prince takes a significant purse drop but presents mediocre speed ratings and limited current form. While he has one win at today’s distance, his recent performances on all-weather surfaces might not translate well here. Fair odds are 7-1.

2 – CYBER NINJA (10-1): Trained by William Mott, Cyber Ninja showcases solid speed ratings and a fair current form. With no prior success at today’s distance and track, Cyber Ninja might struggle in this field. Fair odds are 9-1.

3 – SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE (20-1): Offers modest speed ratings and a fair current form. Despite a recent claim and some success at today’s track, his overall record suggests he’s a longshot in this race. Fair odds are 31-1.

4 – SIGRUN FAST BOY (15-1): Presents solid speed ratings and a fair current form. With decent workouts and some success at today’s track, he could contend for a minor award. Fair odds are 34-1.

5 – AGED TRUTH (20-1): Trained by Caio Caramori, Aged Truth enters the race with impressive speed ratings and a stellar current form, coming off a big win. However, with limited race experience, how he’ll perform against tougher competition is uncertain. Fair odds are 22-1.

6 – SIR FOR SURE (5-1): Boasts impressive speed ratings and a strong current form, particularly showcasing excellent late energy. With success at today’s distance and track, Sir For Sure is a top contender. Fair odds are 4-1.

7 – ROTTERDAM (8-1): Trained by Ralph E. Nicks, Rotterdam has solid speed ratings and a fair current form, with success at today’s track. While he has shown improvement, he might need more to challenge for the win here. Fair odds are 11-1.

8 – JEOPARDY THEORY (9-2): Trained by Joseph Orseno, Jeopardy Theory offers decent speed ratings and a fair current form. Despite no prior success at today’s track, he could contend for a minor award based on recent performances. Fair odds are 16-1.

9 – PATOU ROAD (4-1): Trained by the great Chad Brown, Patou Road showcases impressive speed ratings and a strong current form. Despite limited success at today’s distance and track, his recent jockey switch and decent last workout suggest he could be a top contender. Fair odds are 2-1.

Summary: Sir For Sure and Patou Road emerge as the top contenders in this race, boasting impressive speed ratings and strong current forms. Aged Truth could be a wildcard with his recent big win, while Paramount Prince might struggle with a significant purse drop. Overall, Sir For Sure and Patou Road hold favoritism, with Aged Truth a potential upsetter if he handles the step up in class.

RESULTS
(Updated 3/11/24)

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Introducing AI-Generated Handicapping Analysis

Posted on by DDS

I’ve started using AI technology to analyze the betting reports I produce, marking a revolutionary approach to wagering on sports.

This AI-generated handicapping analysis provides users with unparalleled accuracy and depth, empowering them to confidently make informed betting decisions.  

One of the most notable features of this AI-generated handicapping analysis is its ability to adapt and evolve. As new data becomes available and the algorithm continues to learn and refine its predictions, users can expect increasingly accurate and nuanced insights into race and sports outcomes.  

Below are today’s top contenders from Aqueduct (data provided from my Race Regression Report):

AQUEDUCT
March 9, 2024

RACE 1: Roman Grace has been well-prepared for her debut. Looks First and Autumn Evening also present strong cases, especially considering their current form and trainer stats. While favorites like Catching Heat and I’m Thinking shouldn’t be dismissed, they look like underlays. Overall, a competitive race awaits, with potential for surprises and expected outcomes. 

RACE 2: Pit Boss emerges as a standout frontrunner; however, his 1-for-14 record at today’s record doesn’t inspire confidence. Swift Tap also presents a formidable challenge, wheeling back quickly for trainer Michelle Nevin. Longshots such as Mount Travers and Forever Wicked may surprise, especially considering their recent form and track history. Overall, a competitive field promises an exciting race with potential for surprises.

RACE 3: Friday I’m In Love seems to be the most likely winner, with outstanding performance metrics and exceptional current form. Waflr has a pace advantage. Charming Jim, Qorokwe, and Frankie R. shouldn’t be dismissed outright, though they face tougher challenges. 

RACE 4: Magic Express shines as a frontrunner shipping from Parx Racing. Midway Lights was a $450,000 purchase at auction for trainer Richard Dutrow. Majestic Michael also makes an intriguing case, while longshots like Party With Smarty and Cage Match shouldn’t be dismissed.

RACE 5: Mandatory appears to be a deserving favorite, boasting a superior last-race speed figure, although Blue Plate Special might offer the most value, with 2-1 fair odds.

RACE 6: Fortune’s Nephew looks like a strong favorite, boasting impressive performance metrics and recent form. Blinkers on and a recent good workout add to the positive outlook. Paschal Moon and Kentucky Joker present value with their exceptional current form and enticing odds. 

RACE 7: Expected Value and Mistical Curlin appear to be the ones to beat. Certified Loverboy and Shipsational have value at the right odds.

RACE 8: Hot Fudge stands out, boasting exceptional performance metrics and great current form. Quick Munny and Kant Hurry Love also look strong.

RACE 9: In this competitive race, contenders like Cuando and True Connection emerge as top contenders with solid performance metrics and promising current form, while longshots such as Glint and Mitole’s Diamond face steep odds due to their lack of experience and uncertain prospects. 

RESULTS
(Updated 3/11/24)

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Goodbye to Horse Racing

Posted on by DDS

This will be my last horse racing column (at least for the foreseeable future) — and it has proven to be one of the most difficult I have ever written.

I went to the racetrack for the first time when I was in junior high, about five years before my mom was diagnosed with cancer for the first time and when my stepdad, Dennis, still had a killer jump shot, which he would demonstrate — often — in family games on our half-dirt, half-weeds backyard “basketball court”.

Longacres Racecourse was located just a few miles from our house in Renton, Washington and, one day, my parents suggested we check it out.

“Why would we want to spend a whole day watching horses run around in a circle?” I asked, drawing nods of agreement from my twin brother and younger sister.

Cheery optimists we were not.

“It’ll be fun,” my mom assured us.

So, with all the enthusiasm of the condemned on their way to the gallows, my siblings and I piled into the family car for our trip to the track.

Little did I know then that I was embarking on the journey of a lifetime.

During my junior and senior years in high school, I spent more time reading the Daily Racing Form (the horseplayer’s Wall Street Journal) than I did my schoolbooks — a reality that my grades clearly reflected.

And I didn’t abandon my childhood love when I became an adult either. If anything, my bond with the Sport of Kings grew stronger with each passing year, particularly since my work career often resembled Ryan Leaf’s stint in the NFL — filled with disappointment and anger, but minus an $11.25 million signing bonus.

In fact, it’s fair to say that the game consumed me, as I began spending more and more of my time learning how to “handicap,” which is sports gambling jargon for the art/science of selecting winners. While many of my friends were doing normal things, like talking quietly in libraries and walking carefully with scissors (I never said my friends were exciting), I was reading books by Andrew Beyer, James Quinn and William L. Scott (not his real name, incidentally, making the inclusion of a middle initial very perplexing).

I even had my first serious relationship hit the skids when, one morning, my soon-to-be-ex-girlfriend accused me of caring more about the first race at Aqueduct than I did about her.

“That’s ridiculous,” I said in astonishment. “I care just as much about the second race. There’s a daily double, you know!”

It was even difficult to distinguish what subject my college notebooks pertained to, as they were often filled with scribbling like this:

Scribbling

But I just knew that one day I would have a career in horse racing; though, as the years went quickly by, I suspect even Anthony Robbins would’ve told me, “Hey, look man, it’s not going to happen. Give it up!”

Eventually, I found success (take that, Robbins!). I started my own horse racing website, hosted a racing podcast and, eventually, got the attention of major players in the industry.

After persistent hounding on my part, I was hired by Youbet — probably to stop me from writing the company letters every week — and, with the help of a great marketing director, I quickly became the most popular writer on the site.

As a result, my contract was picked up by TwinSpires.com when Churchill Downs, Inc. acquired Youbet a few years later and, after it expired, I went to work for US Racing.

Overall, my time as the editorial director of USR has been a lot of fun. The site has experienced tremendous growth and I’m very proud of what my colleagues and I have accomplished. But on June 9, 2018, everything changed for me.

For it was on that day that Justify became the 13th winner of the Triple Crown — consisting of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes — and I felt… nothing. As my fellow racing fans gushed and cried, extolling the virtues of this wonderful horse, I watched without passion, without joy, without any feeling at all. It was just another horse, at just another track, on just another day.

Now, I won’t bore you with what happened next. Suffice it to say that I blamed nearly everything in my life for what is blatantly obvious to me now. It is never easy letting go of a first love, especially one that has endured for the better part of your life, but that is the reality I have come to accept.

I spent over 30 years of my life passionate about watching horses run around in a circle all day. I cherish the memories of Chinook Pass, Belle of Rainier, Gary Henson, Jody Davidson, Frank Best, Gary Stevens (who was twice the leading rider at Longacres before finding greater fame in Southern California), the Baze family, and Clint and Tom Roberts.

If I close my eyes and concentrate hard enough I can still remember being among the infield throng gathered on a beautiful Seattle day to watch local hero Trooper Seven win his second consecutive Longacres Mile.

I can recall taking my mom to the track on a particularly soggy Mother’s Day and how my repeated reminder that it was “Mudder’s Day” soon lost its charm. (In retrospect, I don’t think she wanted to be there, rain or shine, but she went for me.)

I can also remember my many trips to the track with Dennis. Once, we lightly hit a car in front of us in our haste to make first post and Dennis apologized to the other driver by explaining that we had a “hot pick in the first race at Longacres.”

The guy didn’t seem particularly impressed, but, since there was no real damage done, he let us resume our journey without calling the police… oh, it probably goes without saying that the hot pick lost.

Look, I realize that everyone experiences the loss of love at some point. It is as much a part of living as breathing. In many ways, I consider myself lucky to have felt it so profoundly only this once. Sure, I’ve had relationships end, but racing occupied a place in my heart that was special and unique. It was my Field of Dreams — initially, a connection to my stepdad and, later, to my past.

Racing Pull Quote

And, if I’m honest, I think it is for this reason I stayed in the industry as long as I did. I yearn to go back to that poor excuse for a basketball court and play one more game with Dennis; I ache to see my mom again — my real mom, not the one who was sick and in pain for so long. I desperately want my kids to know the people who raised me, so they have someone to blame.

But they are both long gone. And it is clear to me now that not even my memories of racing can bring them back anymore. Too much time has passed.

So, like one of T.S. Eliot’s hollow men, I leave the industry as I entered it: not with a bang, but with a whimper. I am profoundly grateful to have had the opportunity to accomplish my greatest life goal (up to this point) and I hope that, someday, I can find my passion for horse racing again.

Featured photo of Dennis and I watching the races.