Tag: betting

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NBA AI Betting Analysis

Posted on by DDS

Saturday, March 23, 2024

Updated Record: 22-8 (updated 3/24/24).


This is still a work in progress, but here is the AI analysis of my pro basketball Database Betting Report:

Brooklyn at New York

Team Stats

Brooklyn: Offense 111.4 PF, Defense 114.0 PA, -2.6 Margin.
New York: Offense 111.9 PF, Defense 108.0 PA, +3.9 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Brooklyn: 1.34
New York: 1.43

  • The Knicks show a strong trend towards the UNDER, particularly in scenarios like playing on 1 day’s rest (Under is 21-6) and as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 (Under is 8-1).
  • The Nets have seen the OVER hit in 4 of their last 5 when playing on 1 day’s rest.

Betting Summary: The Knicks have a better offensive and defensive balance, as reflected in their positive point differential and higher bet rating. Considering the Knicks’ defensive capability and the Nets’ offensive performance, the UNDER might be attractive, given the Knicks’ tendency to engage in lower-scoring games. The spread is a tighter call, but with New York’s solid performance and the slight edge in bet ratings, leaning towards the Knicks to cover seems reasonable, albeit with caution due to their ATS records.

Sacramento at Orlando

Team Stats

Sacramento: Offense 117.9 PF, Defense 116.5 PA, +1.4 Margin.
Orlando: Offense 110.9 PF, Defense 108.8 PA, +2.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Sacramento: 1.50
Orlando: 1.17.

  • Orlando demonstrates a strong UNDER trend in several contexts, notably when their opponent allows 100+ points in their previous game (Under is 10-2).
  • Sacramento shows a mixed trend, with a slight lean towards the UNDER recently.

Betting Summary: Orlando’s stronger defensive stats and positive margin, combined with a respectable bet rating, suggest they’re positioned well to cover against Sacramento. The total points present a potential for the UNDER, aligning with both teams’ recent trends towards lower-scoring games, despite Sacramento’s high-scoring offense.

Charlotte at Atlanta

Team Stats

Charlotte: Offense 106.6 PF, Defense 116.7 PA, -10.1 Margin.
Atlanta: Offense 119.0 PF, Defense 121.2 PA, -2.2 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Charlotte: 1.23
Atlanta: 1.98

  • Atlanta shows a tendency towards the UNDER in their recent games, especially as a favorite.
  • Charlotte has strong UNDER trends, especially when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Betting Summary: Atlanta’s high-scoring games and negative point differential contrast sharply with Charlotte’s struggles. The bet rating favors Atlanta, indicating a stronger performance potential. The game could go OVER, considering Atlanta’s offensive output and defensive weaknesses. Atlanta might cover the spread, given the bet rating and Charlotte’s challenges, but their own defensive issues make this a cautious recommendation.

Toronto at Washington

Team Stats

Toronto: Offense 113.2 PF, Defense 118.1 PA, -4.9 Margin.
Washington: Offense 113.8 PF, Defense 123.9 PA, -10.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Toronto: 1.34
Washington: 0.89

  • Washington’s OVER trend in various scenarios, including as a home favorite, contrasts with their overall season trend towards the UNDER.
  • Toronto’s recent games have seen a significant UNDER trend, particularly when playing on no rest.

Betting Summary: Toronto’s slightly better defensive record and margin, combined with a higher bet rating, point towards a potential for them to cover against the struggling Wizards. Given both teams’ defensive issues, leaning towards the OVER could be considered, despite the trends.

Phoenix at San Antonio

Team Stats

Phoenix: Offense 117.1 PF, Defense 114.4 PA, +2.7 Margin.
San Antonio: Offense 112.1 PF, Defense 119.4 PA, -7.3 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Phoenix: 1.83
San Antonio: 0.94

  • San Antonio’s UNDER trend in home games is notable, especially against teams allowing 100+ points.
  • Phoenix shows a strong UNDER trend in recent games, indicating a defensive emphasis.

Betting Summary: Phoenix’s superior offense and positive margin, along with a stronger bet rating, suggest they are well-placed to cover the spread against San Antonio. The total points lean towards the OVER, given Phoenix’s high-scoring games and San Antonio’s defensive struggles.

Boston at Chicago

Team Stats

Boston: Offense 121.1 PF, Defense 109.4 PA, +11.7 Margin.
Chicago: Offense 112.1 PF, Defense 113.7 PA, -1.6 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Boston: 1.64
Chicago: 1.39

  • Chicago has been hitting OVER frequently, notably in their last 5 overall games.
  • Boston, despite a generally defensive posture, has seen the OVER hit in recent matchups.

Betting Summary: Boston’s impressive offensive prowess and strong defensive record, alongside a superior point differential and bet rating, position them as favorites to cover against Chicago. The OVER is tempting, considering Boston’s high-scoring nature and their ability to push the pace, despite Chicago’s recent trend towards overs in their games.

Utah at Houston

Team Stats

Utah: Offense 116.8 PF, Defense 120.5 PA, -3.7 Margin.
Houston: Offense 113.8 PF, Defense 112.6 PA, +1.2 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Utah: 1.20
Houston: 1.24

  • Houston’s recent games leaning towards the OVER, combined with their offensive capabilities, align with Utah’s mixed trends but recent leans towards higher scoring games.
  • The defensive weaknesses of both teams further bolster the potential for an OVER outcome.

Betting Summary: With both teams showing a tendency towards high-scoring games but Houston having a slightly better defensive record, the game could lean towards the OVER. Houston’s slight edge in bet rating and a positive margin suggests they might cover the spread, especially with Utah’s defensive struggles.

Denver at Portland

Team Stats

Denver: Offense 114.7 PF, Defense 110.1 PA, +4.6 Margin.
Portland: Offense 107.8 PF, Defense 115.9 PA, -8.1 Margin.

Bet Ratings

Denver: 1.72
Portland: 1.09

  • Portland’s OVER trend in their last several games, especially following a straight-up loss, contrasts with Denver’s mixed trends.
  • Denver’s overall UNDER trend, particularly in road games, suggests a defensive focus.

Betting Summary: Denver’s solid offense and decent defensive stats, coupled with a positive point differential and higher bet rating, indicate they could cover the spread against Portland. Given Portland’s poor defensive record and Denver’s capability to score efficiently, the OVER could also be a viable option, aligning with the trends of both teams’ previous games.

RESULTS (updated 3/24/24): 6-2 ATS, 7-1 O/U, 13-3 TOTAL.

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NCAAB AI ANALYSIS

Posted on by DDS

Yesterday’s Results: 9-8 ATS, 13-4 O/U (22-12, 64.7%).

Brown vs. Yale

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 12:00 PM
Spread: Yale -7.5
Over/Under: 135
Offensive Statistics: Brown scores 71.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 43.1%, while Yale scores 75.6 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.2%.
Defensive Statistics: Brown allows 72.2 points per game with opponents shooting 44.8%, while Yale allows 66.8 points per game with opponents shooting 41.5%.
Betting Odds: Brown has a bet rating of 1.12, and Yale has a bet rating of 1.45.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Brown enters the game with a 13-17 record, while Yale boasts a 21-9 record. Yale demonstrates superior offensive and defensive statistics compared to Brown, with a higher scoring average, shooting percentage, and lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may favor Yale in covering the spread due to their stronger overall performance. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Yale is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the over given Yale’s offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Yale to cover the spread, as they have shown stronger overall performance. The over may also be a favorable bet given Yale’s offensive prowess.

Duquesne vs. VCU (Virginia Commonwealth University)

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 1:00 PM
Spread: VCU -2
Over/Under: 127
Offensive Statistics: Duquesne scores 71.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 44.1%, while VCU scores 72.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 44.6%.
Defensive Statistics: Duquesne allows 66.5 points per game with opponents shooting 42.0%, while VCU allows 67.0 points per game with opponents shooting 40.9%.
Betting Odds: Duquesne has a bet rating of 1.60, and VCU has a bet rating of 1.29.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Duquesne holds a 23-11 record, while VCU stands at 22-12. Both teams have similar offensive statistics, but Duquesne has a slightly better defensive record compared to VCU, allowing fewer points per game and a lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may slightly favor Duquesne in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Duquesne has a chance to cover the spread, but the game could be close. The over/under may lean towards the under due to the defensive capabilities of both teams.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Duquesne to cover the spread, as they have a positive margin and a slightly better defensive record. The under may also be a favorable bet considering the defensive strengths of both teams.

Florida vs. Auburn

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 1:00 PM
Spread: Auburn -5.5
Over/Under: 155.5
Offensive Statistics: Florida scores 85.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.9%, while Auburn scores 83.2 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.4%.
Defensive Statistics: Florida allows 78.3 points per game with opponents shooting 43.4%, while Auburn allows 68.1 points per game with opponents shooting 38.5%.
Betting Odds: Florida has a bet rating of 1.73, and Auburn has a bet rating of 1.46.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: After a big come-from-behind victory yesterday, Florida enters the game with a 24-10 record, while Auburn boasts a 26-7 record. Florida demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage compared to Auburn. However, Auburn has a significantly better defensive record, allowing fewer points per game and a lower opponent shooting percentage. Recent trends may favor Auburn in covering the spread due to their stronger defensive performance. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Auburn is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the under given Auburn’s defensive prowess.

Betting Suggestions: Considering Auburn’s defensive capabilities, the under may be a favorable bet.

Temple vs. UAB (University of Alabama at Birmingham)

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 3:15 PM
Spread: UAB -6.5
Over/Under: 138.5
Offensive Statistics: Temple scores 70.9 points per game with a shooting percentage of 39.5%, while UAB scores 77.6 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.0%.
Defensive Statistics: Temple allows 72.5 points per game with opponents shooting 43.7%, while UAB allows 75.4 points per game with opponents shooting 44.6%.
Betting Odds: Temple has a bet rating of 1.27, and UAB has a bet rating of 1.33.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Temple holds a 16-19 record, while UAB stands at 22-11. UAB demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a higher shooting percentage compared to Temple. Additionally, UAB has a slightly better defensive record, allowing slightly fewer points per game and a similar opponent shooting percentage compared to Temple. Recent trends may slightly favor UAB in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, UAB is favored to cover the spread and win the game. The over/under may lean towards the over given UAB’s offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on UAB to cover the spread, as they have superior offensive statistics and recent trends in their favor. The over may also be a favorable bet considering UAB’s offensive prowess.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois

Date: Sunday, 3/17/2024 at 3:30 PM
Spread: Illinois -3
Over/Under: 149
Offensive Statistics: Wisconsin scores 74.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 46.3%, while Illinois scores 84.2 points per game with a shooting percentage of 47.0%.
Defensive Statistics: Wisconsin allows 69.3 points per game with opponents shooting 45.6%, while Illinois allows 73.4 points per game with opponents shooting 43.1%.
Betting Odds: Wisconsin has a bet rating of 1.61, and Illinois has a bet rating of 1.50.
Venue: Neutral

Summary: Wisconsin enters the game with a 22-12 record, while Illinois boasts a 25-8 record. Illinois demonstrates superior offensive statistics, scoring more points per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage compared to Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin has a slightly better defensive record, allowing fewer points per game and a higher opponent shooting percentage compared to Illinois. Recent trends may slightly favor Wisconsin in covering the spread. Considering the overall statistics and recent trends, Wisconsin has a chance to cover the spread, but the game could be close. The over/under may lean towards the over given Illinois’ offensive capabilities.

Betting Suggestions: Consider betting on Wisconsin to cover the spread, as they have a positive margin and a slightly better defensive record. The over may also be a favorable bet considering Illinois’ offensive prowess.

Today’s Results (updated 3/17/24 at 6:59 PM ET): 2-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U, 6-3 total.

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NBA AI ANALYSIS

Posted on by DDS

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Houston Rockets

The Cleveland Cavaliers, with a season record of 42-24, face the Houston Rockets, who stand at 31-35. Cleveland is favored by 4 1/2 points with an Over/Under of 215. The Cavaliers have been performing solidly, with an offensive rating of 113.8 and a defensive rating of 109.4. They have a positive point differential of 4.4 and a Bet Rating of 1.50. Houston, on the other hand, has been struggling with a point differential of 0.6 and a Bet Rating of 1.26.

Cleveland’s recent trends show a 30-35-1 ATS record and a 47.9% field goal percentage. Houston has a 30-36-0 ATS record and a 45.8% field goal percentage. Cleveland has the advantage statistically, both offensively and defensively.

Betting Summary: Considering Cleveland’s stronger statistical performance and being favored by 4 1/2 points, betting on the Cavaliers to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is close to the mark, so it might be safer to pass on this aspect of the bet.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

The struggling Charlotte Hornets (17-50) take on the Philadelphia 76ers (36-30), who are favored by 10 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 209. Philadelphia boasts a solid offensive rating of 115.2 and a Bet Rating of 1.41, while Charlotte struggles with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.21.

Charlotte has been struggling with a 27-38-2 ATS record, while Philadelphia holds a more respectable 34-31-1 ATS record. Philadelphia also has a higher field goal percentage and a stronger defensive game.

Betting Summary: Given Philadelphia’s strong performance and the significant point spread, betting on the 76ers to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively low, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Portland Trail Blazers (19-47) face the New Orleans Pelicans (40-26), with New Orleans being heavily favored by 13 points. The Over/Under is set at 214. New Orleans holds a strong offensive rating of 116.0 and a Bet Rating of 1.41, while Portland struggles defensively with a Bet Rating of 1.13.

Portland has been inconsistent with a 30-33-3 ATS record, while New Orleans holds a more favorable 28-37-1 ATS record. New Orleans also has a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given New Orleans’ dominance statistically and the hefty point spread, betting on the Pelicans to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is close to the mark, so it might be safer to pass on this aspect of the bet.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers

The Brooklyn Nets (26-40) face the Indiana Pacers (37-31), with the Pacers being favored by 8 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 228. Brooklyn has a Bet Rating of 1.34, while Indiana boasts a Bet Rating of 1.39.

Brooklyn has struggled defensively with a negative point differential, while Indiana has shown a more balanced performance. Indiana also holds a better ATS record at 37-31-0 compared to Brooklyn’s 30-34-2.

Betting Summary: Given Indiana’s stronger statistical performance and the point spread, betting on the Pacers to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-20) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (23-44), with Oklahoma City being favored by 10 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 218 1/2. Oklahoma City holds a strong offensive rating of 120.8 and a Bet Rating of 1.39, while Memphis struggles defensively with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.27.

Oklahoma City has a strong ATS record at 39-26-1, while Memphis has been less consistent at 31-36-0. Oklahoma City also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a better three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Oklahoma City’s dominance statistically and the significant point spread, betting on the Thunder to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Washington Wizards vs. Chicago Bulls

The struggling Washington Wizards (11-55) take on the Chicago Bulls (32-35), with the Bulls being heavily favored by 10 points. The Over/Under is set at 225 1/2. Washington struggles both offensively and defensively, while Chicago holds a more balanced performance.

Washington has a dismal ATS record at 31-34-1, while Chicago has a slightly better record at 33-33-0. Chicago also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Chicago’s stronger statistical performance and the hefty point spread, betting on the Bulls to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Golden State Warriors (34-31) face the Los Angeles Lakers (37-31), with the Lakers being favored by 2 points. The Over/Under is set at 233 1/2. Both teams have shown balanced performances statistically, with the Lakers holding a slight advantage.

Golden State has a Bet Rating of 1.36, while the Lakers hold a higher Bet Rating of 1.59. The Lakers also have a slightly better ATS record at 37-30-1 compared to Golden State’s 32-33-0.

Betting Summary: Given the relatively close matchup and the slight point spread favoring the Lakers, betting on the Warriors to cover seems reasonable.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz

The Minnesota Timberwolves (45-21) take on the Utah Jazz (29-37), with Minnesota being favored by 8 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 223. Minnesota holds a strong offensive rating of 113.2 and a Bet Rating of 1.63, while Utah struggles defensively with a negative point differential and a Bet Rating of 1.20.

Minnesota has a strong ATS record at 32-31-3, while Utah has struggled at 36-29-1. Minnesota also boasts a higher field goal percentage and a stronger three-point shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Minnesota’s dominance statistically and the significant point spread, betting on the Timberwolves to cover seems favorable. The Over/Under is relatively high, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings

The New York Knicks (39-27) face the Sacramento Kings (38-27), with the Kings being favored by 3 1/2 points. The Over/Under is set at 218. New York has shown a balanced performance statistically, with a Bet Rating of 1.45, while Sacramento holds a slightly higher Bet Rating of 1.46.

New York has a better ATS record at 24-40-2 compared to Sacramento’s 33-30-2. However, Sacramento boasts a higher field goal percentage and a better free-throw shooting game.

Betting Summary: Given Sacramento’s slightly stronger statistical performance and the modest point spread, betting on the Kings to cover seems reasonable. The Over/Under is relatively low, so betting on the Under might be a reasonable option.

These betting summaries are based on the teams’ recent performance statistics, point differentials, ATS records, and other relevant factors outlined in the provided data. It’s essential to consider the trends and matchups before making any betting decisions.

RECORD: 9-5 (updated 3/17/24).

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Introducing AI-Generated Handicapping Analysis

Posted on by DDS

I’ve started using AI technology to analyze the betting reports I produce, marking a revolutionary approach to wagering on sports.

This AI-generated handicapping analysis provides users with unparalleled accuracy and depth, empowering them to confidently make informed betting decisions.  

One of the most notable features of this AI-generated handicapping analysis is its ability to adapt and evolve. As new data becomes available and the algorithm continues to learn and refine its predictions, users can expect increasingly accurate and nuanced insights into race and sports outcomes.  

Below are today’s top contenders from Aqueduct (data provided from my Race Regression Report):

AQUEDUCT
March 9, 2024

RACE 1: Roman Grace has been well-prepared for her debut. Looks First and Autumn Evening also present strong cases, especially considering their current form and trainer stats. While favorites like Catching Heat and I’m Thinking shouldn’t be dismissed, they look like underlays. Overall, a competitive race awaits, with potential for surprises and expected outcomes. 

RACE 2: Pit Boss emerges as a standout frontrunner; however, his 1-for-14 record at today’s record doesn’t inspire confidence. Swift Tap also presents a formidable challenge, wheeling back quickly for trainer Michelle Nevin. Longshots such as Mount Travers and Forever Wicked may surprise, especially considering their recent form and track history. Overall, a competitive field promises an exciting race with potential for surprises.

RACE 3: Friday I’m In Love seems to be the most likely winner, with outstanding performance metrics and exceptional current form. Waflr has a pace advantage. Charming Jim, Qorokwe, and Frankie R. shouldn’t be dismissed outright, though they face tougher challenges. 

RACE 4: Magic Express shines as a frontrunner shipping from Parx Racing. Midway Lights was a $450,000 purchase at auction for trainer Richard Dutrow. Majestic Michael also makes an intriguing case, while longshots like Party With Smarty and Cage Match shouldn’t be dismissed.

RACE 5: Mandatory appears to be a deserving favorite, boasting a superior last-race speed figure, although Blue Plate Special might offer the most value, with 2-1 fair odds.

RACE 6: Fortune’s Nephew looks like a strong favorite, boasting impressive performance metrics and recent form. Blinkers on and a recent good workout add to the positive outlook. Paschal Moon and Kentucky Joker present value with their exceptional current form and enticing odds. 

RACE 7: Expected Value and Mistical Curlin appear to be the ones to beat. Certified Loverboy and Shipsational have value at the right odds.

RACE 8: Hot Fudge stands out, boasting exceptional performance metrics and great current form. Quick Munny and Kant Hurry Love also look strong.

RACE 9: In this competitive race, contenders like Cuando and True Connection emerge as top contenders with solid performance metrics and promising current form, while longshots such as Glint and Mitole’s Diamond face steep odds due to their lack of experience and uncertain prospects. 

RESULTS
(Updated 3/11/24)